The published record for the Behavioral Transform Model is specific: a calibration result for an expected-range band, scored on daily closes. A reader deciding whether to rely on it should know the edges of that record as well as the figures inside it. This is the list of what has not been tested or published, drawn from the live pages. The methodology and limits post covers what the tests do show; this one covers what they leave out.
Where the right-hand column names a figure, it is on the Proof page as historical calibration; past behavior is not a guarantee of future results.
It is a working paper and has not been peer-reviewed, which the site states wherever it is cited. The Proof page shows 16 of the 40 instruments; the full table is in the paper. The paper validates the range's calibration, not the profitability of any use, and whether any use delivers value after real-world costs is an open question. The band is an expected range, not a claim that price reverses at its edges.
Two limits are measured and published rather than omitted. The band runs too narrow in the first days of a fast volatility jump, with containment falling to about 65% on the most extreme crisis-onset days, and the outer band is slightly optimistic in the deep tails. When volatility bands fail covers both, and why we publish our methodology explains why the misses are listed next to the results.
Because a band makes a checkable claim, and a checkable claim is only as useful as its stated scope. A figure quoted outside the sample it was measured on is a different claim, one nobody has tested. The how to evaluate a paid indicator post makes the same point about any vendor: the question is what a tool has not been asked to do.
Will untested instruments be added?
The live pages do not announce a roadmap, so this post makes no promise about future tests.
Does "not tested" mean the band does not work there?
No. It means no figure has been published, so no claim is made either way.
Is the 97-year figure for every instrument?
No. The 97-year sample is the S&P 500 cash index only; every other instrument has a shorter period, listed per row on the Proof page.
The paper is at oisigma.com/paper. The 30-day free trial lets you check the band against your own markets, inside and outside the published list: start free, cancel anytime.
Oisigma provides descriptive market analytics for educational use. It is not investment advice, does not predict prices, and does not provide buy or sell signals. Statistics referenced are historical and were measured in our working paper (not peer-reviewed); past behavior is not a guarantee of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Leveraged products (futures, options, margin) carry additional risk and can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Bollinger Bands® is a registered trademark of John Bollinger; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by Mr. Bollinger. RiskMetrics® is a registered trademark of MSCI Inc.; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by MSCI Inc. Nothing in this article is a recommendation to use any particular strategy. Read the full Disclaimer →
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