An expected-range band on a Nasdaq chart shows how far recent closes have moved, scaled to the market's own recent behavior. Two Nasdaq-related series are on the published record: the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and the Nasdaq index. A NAS100 futures or CFD contract is not listed separately.
On the Proof page, QQQ over 1999–2024 shows the next close inside the inner band 70.6% of the time and inside the outer band 93.8%. The Nasdaq index over 1971–2024 shows 70.3% and 93.8%. These are historical calibration figures, and past behavior is not a guarantee of future results.
Not necessarily. The published rows are for the ETF and the index. A broker's NAS100 contract, or a futures contract on TradingView, is a different series with its own quirks, such as contract rolls and session hours. Because the band uses the closing prices of whatever series is on the chart, the construction applies to it, but no calibration figure has been published for those contracts specifically.
The intraday check reported in the working paper covers SPY only, inner band only, down to a 15-minute floor, and no Nasdaq instrument. No claim is made for NAS100 on intraday timeframes. The intraday article gives the SPY detail, and the daily vs weekly article covers higher timeframes.
The band is an expected range, not a claim that price reverses at its edges. It runs too narrow in the first days of a fast volatility jump, the outer band is slightly optimistic in the deep tails, and the paper validates calibration, not the profitability of any use. See when volatility bands fail.
Is the gap between QQQ and the Nasdaq index meaningful?
Not on its own. The two rows cover different periods, and the paper reports a confidence interval for each instrument, so a difference of a few tenths of a point between rows is not treated as meaningful by itself.
Is the Nasdaq composite the same as the Nasdaq-100?
No, they are different indexes. The published rows are the Nasdaq index and the Nasdaq-100 ETF, listed separately.
Does a wider band mean a bigger move is coming?
No. A wider band means recent returns were larger. It describes the past window, not the next move.
Details are in the working paper. The 30-day free trial lets you check the range on your own Nasdaq chart: start free, cancel anytime.
Oisigma provides descriptive market analytics for educational use. It is not investment advice, does not predict prices, and does not provide buy or sell signals. Statistics referenced are historical and were measured in our working paper (not peer-reviewed); past behavior is not a guarantee of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Leveraged products (futures, options, margin) carry additional risk and can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Bollinger Bands® is a registered trademark of John Bollinger; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by Mr. Bollinger. RiskMetrics® is a registered trademark of MSCI Inc.; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by MSCI Inc. Nothing in this article is a recommendation to use any particular strategy. Read the full Disclaimer →
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