The Oisigma BTM is a calibrated expected-range indicator for TradingView, published by Oisigma. This post is the vendor's own summary, not an independent review: what the method is, what the tests show and where they end.
It estimates the standard deviation of recent returns over a rolling window of about 60 bars and draws an inner and an outer band around the current level, in return space.
Return space is explained in return space vs price space.
Historically the next close landed inside the inner band 71.20% of the time on 24,248 S&P 500 closes (1927–2024), and inside the outer band ~94%. The paper also covers 40 instruments in five asset classes. The benchmark for a finite window is 67.46%. See the 97-year test.
In the paper's comparison, a (20, 2) price-space Bollinger band covered 82.64% against 94.00% here. Past behavior is not a guarantee of future results.
Containment fell to about 65% at crisis onset (VIX above 30) because the range runs narrow early in a fast shock. The outer band is slightly optimistic in the deep tails. The 97-year sample is S&P 500 only, the paper is not peer-reviewed, and the paper validates calibration, not the profitability of any use. Whether any use delivers value after costs is an open question.
Does it generate signals?
No. It shows a range; it does not define entries, exits or stops.
Can the code be inspected?
The script is invite-only; the method is described in the working paper and tests on the Proof page.
Who wrote this?
Oisigma, the vendor, which is why the limits are listed alongside the results.
Try it with the 30-day free trial: start with the free trial, cancel anytime.
Oisigma provides descriptive market analytics for educational use. It is not investment advice, does not predict prices, and does not provide buy or sell signals. Statistics referenced are historical and were measured in our working paper (not peer-reviewed); past behavior is not a guarantee of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Leveraged products (futures, options, margin) carry additional risk and can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Bollinger Bands® is a registered trademark of John Bollinger; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by Mr. Bollinger. RiskMetrics® is a registered trademark of MSCI Inc.; Oisigma is not affiliated with or endorsed by MSCI Inc. Nothing in this article is a recommendation to use any particular strategy. Read the full Disclaimer →
Try it free for 30 days and see the range update as new bars print, on whatever symbols and timeframes you actually trade.
30 days free, then $15/mo. Cancel anytime from your account.
Pick up where you left off.